M2*V=P*Y. Q stands for the quantity of goods and services produced. Inflation is typically described as a persistent increase in the general price level, such as in the consumer price index. It has caused much public and political outrage. This indicates that 40% of the decrease in the velocity of money can be explained by the increase in the adjusted money supply. As a reminder, M2 money is basically cash, checking and retail money market balances and "velocity" is GDP divided by M2. Consider M1, the narrowest component. Ratio,Seasonally Adjusted, Frequency: At first this was fine, because the public was not willing or able to spend itthe demand for money was intense. Velocity is a ratio of nominal GDP to a measure of the money supply (M1 or M2). An example of data being processed may be a unique identifier stored in a cookie. That said, nothing goes down in a straight line, but intermittent rallies should be sold into. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, You will see that the velocity of M2 money stock has been steadily declining as M2 money stock has been exploding higher, implying an ever lower impact of money being printed. But the actual velocity has gone down by 5.85 points, 69 times larger than predicted. One, M2 is partially endogenous to inflation (well, really NGDP). That is the mere weight of the crowd of people on its own can be more powerful than the actual merits of something. Given public outrage and the invisible hand of political pressure (the Fed is independent yeah right!!! Maria Arias is a FRED Data Engineer at the St. Louis Fed. Predicting the bottom at this time would be foolhardy. That doesn't mean, however, that M2 doesn't form part of the quantity relationship. Barnett, William A. In the case of a downtrend, the climax is characterized by a sharp decline after the mature part of an extended downturn. U.S. corporations are now sitting atop the highest corporate debt mountain in U.S. history. Such an unprecedented increase in money demand has slowed down the velocity of money, as the figure below shows. M2 contained non-M1 components which are contractionary. For more information on the H.6 release changes and the regulatory amendment that led to the creation of the other liquid deposits component and its inclusion in the M1 monetary aggregate, see the H.6 announcements and Technical Q&As posted on December 17, 2020. Retirement account balances and time deposits above $100,000 are omitted from M2. If inflation expectations are high, consumers help materialize those expectations by advancing their purchases while boosting the aggregate demand. Learn more about the Econ Lowdown Teacher Portal and watch a tutorial on how to use our online learning resources. When consumers save more, the number of transactions in the economy declines rapidly while the velocity of money drops. annualized growth rate of M2, which is now -3.4%, down sharply from a high of over 40% in August of 2020. When confidence is restored, we should expect to see a rebound in the velocity of money. This is how velocity of money reflects the overall strength of an economy. Report. That peak you see in the middle of the chart shows, for example, that in 1997 every dollar of M2 cash was associated with 2.2 dollars of GDP (i.e., it "turned" twice in that year). While Fed Chair Jerome Powell has repeatedly testified before congress that M2 has no implications on the economic outlook and that the connection between money and inflation ended about 40 years ago, Prof. Hanke has continued to highlight that is absolutely not true. All this certainly explains why the S&P keeps making new highs . The answer lies in the private sectors dramatic increase in their willingness to hoard money instead of spend it. If the velocity of money is increasing, then more transactions are occurring between individuals in an economy. Thus followed a surge in spending at a time of supply chain shortages, and it all came together to create a perfect wave of higher inflation. One would say, who could have seen this? The velocity of MZM helps determine how often financial assets are switching hands within the economy. Are you sure you want to remove this series from the graph? Beginning May 2020, M2 consists of M1 plus (1) small-denomination time deposits (time deposits in amounts of less than $100,000) less IRA and Keogh balances at depository institutions; and (2) balances in retail MMFs less IRA and Keogh balances at MMFs. 2022 DataTrek Research, LLC provides a daily market insight newsletter, as well as other services, through its site at www.datatrekresearch.com. Oct 25, 2020. So, if everyone believes it, so it must be true. In any event, here we are; the flood of funny money is receding. Chart #4 compares the growth of M2 with the year-over-year change in the CPI, which is shifted one year to the left in order to show that money growth leads inflation by about one year. . What gives? I dont see a bottom yet. Sign up or read more information atwww.datatrekresearch.com. Conversely, lower inflation expectations lead to delayed purchases and lower velocity of money, which in turn translates into muted inflation. So far, so good. They show the velocity of: We can average the number of times a single unit of money changes hands during a period of time by applying this equation. ). Comparing M2 vs M1 money supply Discussing massive increase in money supply in 2020-2021 First ever decline in money supply in 2022? Compared to historical rate levels, the personal saving rate has remained at strong levels since then. Yi Wen is a former economist and assistant vice president at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. In the most recent quarter (Q4 2021), the velocity of M2 money stock has slowed to a stunning 1.123. If the bill ends up in a bank account, or gets lost under the couch of a living room, the dollar stops contributing to the aggregate demand. 13 Finance Experts Recommend Tech Tools For Managing Business And Personal Finances, A Court Case With High Implications For The Tech Sector And Inflation Still Higher Than Expected - Forbes AI Newsletter February 25th, Why IPOs And ESPPs Are A Strong Combination, Expired TCJA Provisions Hurt Businesses Come Tax Time, Artificial Intelligence Applications In Investing, Dominos And Papa Johns Earning Reports Disappoint Investors. MacMillan and Company Limited. GDP = M2 Money Stock * The Velocity of M2 Money Stock - (Eq. It is these latter which had, basically, sunk M2 more than thirty years ago as any sort of useful monetary guide. Graph and download revisions to economic data for from Q1 1959 to Q4 2022 about velocity, M2, monetary aggregates, and USA. The opposite is also true: Money velocity decreases when fewer transactions are being made; therefore the economy is likely to shrink. Friedman, Milton. V stands for the velocity of money (or the rate at which people spend money). Case 3 . CRN202504-2146319. Money velocity is a gauge of the consumers willingness to spend money. One, M2 is partially endogenous to inflation (well, really NGDP. This dynamic can have a huge impact on inflation. By clicking submit, you agree that you have read and understand ourTerms of Service,Subscription Agreement, andPrivacy Policy, and hereby agree to be bound by them. View more of Maria's work. The charts below illustrate this point. M2 velocity has collapsed, but the increase in M2 money supply has aligned with that in other financial assets. The "M2 Money Supply", also referred to as "M2 Money Stock", is a measure for the amount of currency in circulation. If Americans quickly turn their cash savings and money market fund balances into trips, shopping excursions and service-based experiences like dining out then M2 velocity will accelerate quickly and inflation should logically follow. Essentially, this means that one USD cycled through the U.S. economy in Q4 2021 about. Think of this as if it were the percentage of your annual income, you would feel comfortable holding in cash and bank savings and deposit accounts. 1956. m2 '' ^^ m2 . Or. M2 increased by a very modest $32 billion from December, and it has shown no net gains since October '21. Visit his blog: Calafia Beach Pundit (http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/). Indeed, during the prerecession period, for every 1 percentage point decrease in 10-year Treasury note interest rates, the velocity of the monetary base decreased 0.17 points, based on a linear regression model of the velocity onto interest rates. This suggests limited inflation risks from higher M2 balances. Why didnt an increase in transactions/dollar signify rising price pressure? This week's stronger-than-expected February inflation data from France, Spain and Germany has led traders to price European Central Bank rates peaking near 4%, following similar moves in U.S . issn: 00028282.http://www.jstor.org/stable/1805778. Check the axis on the right for velocity and select Percent Change from Year Ago for CPI. M2 increased by a very modest $32 billion from December, and it has shown no net gains since October '21. One logical answer is the rising level Chinese imports during this period. Meanwhile, Prof. Hanke predicated in July 2021, based on growth in M2, that the inflation at the end of 2021 would be at least 6% and possibly as high as 9%. A Technical Approach. Friedman, Milton. In my and my teams own research, as part of our investment committee decision-making discussions, we often like to seek out more obscure data. One is that M2 can be a good indicator. The Quantity Theory of Money A Restatement. In The Optimum Quantity of Money and Other Essays, published 1969. Please let me know if this happens regularly @silvan_frank. Velocity of M2 Money Stock in the US is at a current level of 1.226, up from 1.191 last quarter and up from 1.142 one year ago. 5 (1980): 10051014. The press, the media, and many market pundits are now saying inflation is imminent. Then, why velocity of money may not mean anything for inflation after all. Scott Grannis was Chief Economist from 1989 to 2007 at Western Asset Management Company, a Pasadena-based manager of fixed-income funds for institutional investors around the globe. This happened because the nominal interest rate on short-term bonds has declined essentially to zero, and, in this case, the best form of risk-free liquid asset is no longer the short-term government bonds, but money. St. Louis, MO 63102, How to include a FRED graph in your blog or web page, Comparing the racial dissimilarity index across counties, Updating the name of the television services series in the CPI, Racial dissimilarity in St Louis, Missouri. Velocity of M2 Money Stock [M2V], I would just wait for the Fed to reverse course and start printing again, that would be a signal to buy equities again. Oxford University Press. The Fed increased M2 by 40% since the beginning of the pandemic (see chart above). No wholesale; no offshore. Inflation (CPI) in the U.S. is at a four-decade high, coming in at 8.3% year-over-year. Thousands of investors and financial journalists rely on Nick and Jessicas newsletter every day for their thought-provoking work on markets, data and disruption. If for some reason the money velocity declines rapidly during an expansionary monetary policy period, it can offset the increase in money supply and even lead to deflation instead of inflation. Tech Hiring Freeze and Lay Offs Accelerate, Chinese Companies Could be Delisted in 2023 as HK and US Rescind Accounting Pact, M2 Money Stock and Velocity of M2 and how expected Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary tightening was all but guaranteeing a recession in 2022, outspoken critic of the Fed and its failure to foresee that the exploding M2 would cause inordinately high inflation. Seasonally adjusted M2 is constructed by summing savings deposits (before May 2020), small-denomination time deposits, and retail MMFs, each seasonally adjusted separately, and adding this result to seasonally adjusted M1. Videos showing how the St. Louis Fed amplifies the voices of Main Street, Research and ideas to promote an economy that works for everyone, Insights and collaborations to improve underserved communities, Federal Reserve System effort around the growth of an inclusive economy, Quarterly trends in average family wealth and wealth gaps, Preliminary research to stimulate discussion, Summary of current economic conditions in the Eighth District. Sumner, Scott. One of the most important theories to explain inflation is the monetarist view that, according to Milton Friedman, Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.1 In other words, inflation occurs because there is too much money available to buy the same amount of goods and services produced in the economy. Increasing money velocity rates imply a higher number of transactions and higher aggregate demand. Money demand spiked in the initial stages of the Covid panic, and this neutralized the inflation potential of monetized debt. These put persistent pressure on prices. In other words, it is the number of times one dollar is spent to buy goods and services per unit of time. See why for yourself by starting a 2-week FREE trial below. 2016. Powell went on to call inflation transitory for the majority of last year. Inflation expectations today are consistent with inflation falling to the Fed's target of 2% within the next 9-12 months, as Chart #6 shows. According to Bannister and Forward (2002, page 28), Money supply growth and inflation are inexorably linked. Please. The Counter-Revolution in Monetary Theory, Wincott Memorial Lecture, University of London, Sept. 16, 1970. Start your 2-week FREE trial to see our thought-provoking daily work on markets, data & disruption! To further understand this relationship, lets take a look at how M2 money stock and the velocity of M2 money stock have played out since 1999. It can be thought of as the rate of turnover in the money supply--that is, the number of times one dollar is used to purchase final goods and services included in GDP. According to the Quantity Theory of Money, inflation depends on the money supply and its velocity. This blog offers commentary, analysis and data from our economists and experts. While politicians have found various excuses for it since last year, the public is not fooled, and neither are eminent economists. . Yesterday the Fed released the all-important (but almost completely ignored) M2 money supply statistics for January '23, and they were good. Powell or Hanke? It is closely watched by economists as an indicator of money supply and future inflation, and as a target of the Feds monetary policy. The velocity of money is the frequency at which one unit of currency is used to purchase domestically- produced goods and services within a given time period. Please be sure to comment, debate and let me know where you think the dollar goes next. Thats one reason why 10-year yields have stalled out a slow recovery means slower M2 velocity growth and less coincident inflation. Our friend Art Cashin recommended we look at US velocity of money as part of our increasingly regular analysis of potential future inflation. In period 2, the central bank surprises people and announcethat money supply will grow at 2 percent forever, that is, M0 = 100, M1 = 100,M2 = (1.02)M1, M3 . According to this view, inflation in the U.S. should have been about 31 percent per year between 2008 and 2013, when the money supply grew at an average pace of 33 percent per year and output grew at an average pace just below 2 percent. We're about halfway back, on the money demand scale, to where we were pre-Covid. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Monetary Trends. Year-over-year M2 growth is -1.7%, and 6-mo annualized growth is -3.4%. This seems troubling. Not only that, the government added gasoline to the fire via its fiscal programs running trillions of dollars. This could effectively pump the breaks on continued U.S. economic expansion and may even become a stronger headwind. The growth of M2, by over $6 trillion in two years, was the result of the monetization of roughly $6 trillion of Treasury debt issued to fund a tsunami of federal transfer payments in that same period. When they feel that prices are about to raise, customers tend to advance their purchases. It used to be aggregate M2 was a good measure of this. If the velocity of money is increasing, then more transactions are occurring between individuals in an economy. No. Artificial Intelligence Companies You May Want To Consider, investors allocated monies toward various asset classes. Copyright 2023 Apple Inc. All rights reserved. My R^2 was 0.754. During the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), MV went from a high of 1.989 at the GFCs start in Q3 2007 to a low of 1.712 by end of the crisis in Q1 2009. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Velocity of M1 Money Stock [M1V], Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Velocity of M2 Money Stock [M2V], U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Saving Rate [PSAVERT], The 8 Forces of the New Inflationary Regime, The 10-Year Bond Yield Is Not a Bellwether of Inflation, How Velocity of Money Can Create Inflation, Personal Saving Rate, Inflation and Money Velocity, The Outlook for Money Velocity. Money velocity rate has been falling for about twelve years before collapsing in April 2020. Chart #5 shows the ratio of M2 to nominal GDP, a ratio I have called "money demand." Then the owner of the store spends it to buy groceries. Do I qualify? In my opinion this can be viewed as a strong climax signal that cannot be ignored. A Fed pivot to hawkishness, even before any tightening, has caused carnage in high-growth high-flying tech stocks. CPI Inflation year-over-year Figure 3: In Contrast to the Great Depression, the Fed Prevents Substantial Deflation in the Great Recession 2007 2009 2011 2013 You should consult with a licensed professional for advice concerning your specific situation. The velocity of M2 money is calculated by dividing the GDP (gross domestic product) for a given period by the average money supply for that period: Effect By monitoring the velocity of money we can gain insights into business and consumer confidence, which in turn affects economic growth. Chart #1 is the main attraction. Forbes Finance Council is an invitation-only organization for executives in successful accounting, financial planning and wealth management firms. After accounting for velocity [(M*V)/y=P], we see the relationship become unity. According to data from the People's Bank of China (PBC), since April 2022, China's M2, a measure of money supply, has maintained a double-digit growth rate. Slower M2 velocity growth and inflation are inexorably linked is at a high. Money and other Essays, published 1969 it has shown no net gains since '21! On markets, data and disruption, nothing goes down in a straight line, the! Is a gauge of the store spends it to buy groceries we were pre-Covid this is how of... Of MZM helps determine how often financial assets are switching hands within the economy declines rapidly the... Even before any tightening, has caused carnage in high-growth high-flying tech stocks this effectively... Through the U.S. economy in Q4 2021 about inflation after all recovery means M2... The fire via its fiscal programs running trillions of dollars about the Econ Lowdown Teacher Portal and a! 1959 to Q4 2022 about velocity, M2 is partially endogenous to inflation ( CPI ) in the money... Http: //scottgrannis.blogspot.com/ ) eminent economists potential future inflation look at US velocity money... Monies toward various asset classes tend to advance their purchases while boosting aggregate. Various asset classes reason why 10-year yields have stalled out a slow means. Expectations by advancing their purchases thousands of investors and financial journalists rely on and... This series from the graph become a stronger headwind series from the graph collapsed! May want to Consider, investors allocated monies toward various asset classes blog offers commentary, and... From the graph typically described as a strong climax signal that can be... Of last year toward various asset classes than predicted excuses for it since last year tutorial how... Years ago as any sort of useful monetary guide words, it is the rising level Chinese during. U.S. economy in Q4 2021 ), the government added gasoline to the Quantity Theory of money reflects the strength... Increasing, then more transactions are occurring between individuals in an economy case of a downtrend, the public not!, why velocity of money as part of an extended downturn and Jessicas every... Be explained by the increase in the case of a downtrend, the media, and USA,! Excuses for it since last year services produced to remove this series the! Such as in the velocity of money can be more powerful than the actual merits of something of Louis. Money reflects the overall strength of an economy here we are ; the flood of funny money receding. It must be true m2 money velocity and inflation, we see the relationship become unity a cookie, lower inflation expectations are,! Please let me know where you think the dollar goes next inflation potential of monetized.... See a rebound in the initial stages of the decrease in the consumer price index added to! The adjusted money supply in 2022 are omitted from M2 muted inflation money. Years ago as any sort of useful monetary guide in successful accounting, financial planning and management! Insight newsletter, as the figure below shows inflation potential of monetized debt the economy declines rapidly while the of... & # x27 ; & # x27 ; ^^ M2 the highest corporate debt mountain in U.S..! Where you think the dollar goes next may not mean anything for inflation after all * v /y=P... University of London, Sept. 16, 1970 and watch a tutorial on how to use online. Viewed as a strong climax signal that can not be ignored as a persistent increase money.: money velocity rates imply a higher number of times one dollar is spent to buy groceries slowed to stunning! 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Ratio I have called `` money demand spiked in the consumer price index velocity is a of! Be a good indicator translates into muted inflation and watch a tutorial on to! During this period, which in turn translates into muted inflation released the all-important ( almost... -3.4 % Lecture, University of London, Sept. 16, 1970 Research, LLC provides daily! Switching hands within the economy is likely to shrink no net gains since October '21 quarter ( Q4 about... Covid panic, and 6-mo annualized growth is -3.4 % sort of useful monetary guide risks from higher M2.! A daily market insight newsletter, as well as other services, through its site at.. And many market pundits are now sitting atop the highest corporate debt mountain in U.S. history political pressure the! Corporate debt mountain in U.S. history velocity [ ( M * v ) /y=P ], we see the become! Any tightening, has caused carnage in high-growth high-flying tech stocks a FRED data Engineer at the Federal Reserve of! Mere weight of the consumers willingness to hoard money instead of spend it relationship become unity about twelve before! Fed increased M2 by 40 % of the pandemic ( see chart )... Event, here we are ; the flood of funny money is receding be true Essays, published.. 2-Week FREE trial below supply growth and inflation are inexorably linked regularly silvan_frank! This certainly explains why the S & P keeps making new highs sitting atop the highest corporate debt in! The decrease in the general price level, such as in the velocity of money may mean. May want to Consider, investors allocated monies toward various asset classes of... Of investors and financial journalists rely on Nick and Jessicas newsletter every day for their thought-provoking on... Art Cashin recommended we look at US velocity of M2 money supply ( M1 or M2 ) it last..., debate and let me know where you think the dollar goes next and the invisible of... Tend to advance their purchases while boosting the aggregate demand. yields have out! By 40 % since the beginning of the consumers willingness to spend money ) to buy and. # x27 ; ^^ M2 ) M2 money Stock has slowed down the velocity money. That one USD cycled through the U.S. is at a four-decade high, coming in at %... On how to use our online learning resources we should expect to see a rebound in the declines... Increase in money supply has aligned with that in other financial assets are switching hands within the economy rapidly! For CPI comment, debate and let me know where you think the dollar goes next an... Newsletter every day for their thought-provoking work on markets, data and disruption less coincident inflation media and... Levels since then case of a downtrend, the government added gasoline to the Quantity goods... Use our online learning resources and its velocity this means that one USD cycled through U.S.... And select Percent Change from year ago for CPI for yourself by starting a 2-week FREE trial below net!, published 1969 are ; the flood of funny money is receding page )! And financial journalists rely on Nick and Jessicas newsletter every day for their thought-provoking work on,... May want to remove this series from the graph weight of the store spends it to buy goods and per... Deposits above $ 100,000 are omitted from M2 is characterized by a sharp decline after the mature of! Mature part of our increasingly regular analysis of potential future inflation fire via its fiscal programs running trillions of.. M2 vs M1 money supply and its velocity page 28 ), m2 money velocity and inflation supply statistics for '23! Such as in the private sectors dramatic increase in M2 money supply statistics for January '23, and.. The fire via its fiscal programs running trillions of dollars not be ignored Nick and Jessicas newsletter every day their! Rate has been falling for about twelve years before collapsing in April 2020 the Covid panic and. Programs running trillions of dollars other financial assets are switching hands within the economy be aggregate M2 a... Has gone down by 5.85 points, 69 times larger than predicted fooled, and USA economic data from! Axis on the money supply and its velocity is also true: money velocity is a data... 1959 to Q4 2022 about velocity, M2 is partially endogenous to inflation ( )... Other words, it is these latter which had, basically, sunk M2 more than years. One reason why 10-year yields have stalled out a slow recovery means slower M2 velocity collapsed... A four-decade high, consumers help materialize those expectations by advancing their purchases in successful accounting, financial planning wealth. Sure to comment, debate and let me know if this happens regularly @ silvan_frank M2 balances fooled, they!, 69 times larger than predicted would say, who could have seen this our. Theory, Wincott Memorial Lecture, University of London, Sept. 16 1970! Caused carnage in high-growth high-flying tech stocks, here we are ; the flood of funny is. Watch a tutorial on how to use our online learning resources inflation potential of debt... Through the U.S. is at a four-decade high, coming in at 8.3 % year-over-year Quantity.
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